European stock markets are expected to open largely unchanged Monday, as investors digest weak Chinese business activity data ahead of the release of eurozone growth and inflation data.
At 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded flat, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 0.1% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. traded unchanged.
Chinese economic weakness hits sentiment
Risk appetite has been hit Monday by the release of data showing that activity in China’s important manufacturing sector fell for a fourth straight month in July, raising further doubts about the durability of the recovery of the second-biggest economy in the world.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index edged up to 49.3 in July from 49.0 in June, but that was still below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.
The Chinese economy is an important market for European exporters, and growth slowed to 0.8% in the June quarter from a 2.2% quarter-on-quarter clip in the prior quarter.
Key eurozone data in spotlight
However, losses are likely to be limited Monday as investors focus upon key economic data out of the eurozone, especially given the uncertainty over what the European Central Bank will do with its key interest rates at its September meeting.
The ECB raised interest rates to a 23-year high last week, and President Christine Lagarde indicated during the subsequent press conference that future decisions would be data-dependent.
At the next meeting in September, “there could be a further hike of the policy rate or perhaps a pause,” she told Le Figaro newspaper Sunday. “A pause, whenever it occurs, in September or later, would not necessarily be definitive.”
The flash eurozone GDP is seen rising 0.2% on the quarter in the second quarter, an annual gain of 0.5%, while annual eurozone consumer inflation is forecast at 5.3% for July, from 5.5% the previous month.
Heineken cuts earnings guidance
The quarterly earnings slate is relatively quiet Monday, Heineken (AS:HEIN) will be in focus after the world’s second-largest brewer cut its forecast for 2023 profit growth after a weak performance in its Asian markets in the second quarter.
Crude market on track for hefty monthly gain
Oil prices fell Monday after the glum Chinese manufacturing activity data pointed to a deteriorating economic outlook for the world’s largest crude importer.
However, the crude market is on track for its biggest monthly gain in over a year on expectations of tightening global supply with Saudi Arabia seen as likely to extend its production cuts into September.
By 02:00 ET, the U.S. crude futures traded 0.4% lower at $80.27 a barrel, while the Brent contract dropped 0.4% to $84.06.
Both contracts settled on Friday at their highest levels since April, gaining for a fifth straight week, and are on track to close this month with their biggest monthly gains since January 2022.
Additionally, gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,992.50/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.1012.
